U.S. inflation is cooling faster than expected, but will consumers feel it?

Even as inflation continues to cool into the second half of 2024, many Americans say they're still struggling to make ends meet.

Roughly one-third of U.S. workers say they're living paycheck to paycheck and have nearly no money for savings after paying their monthly bills, according to a survey from personal finance website Bankrate. 

Relying on one's full earnings each week to pay off living expenses has been a harsh reality for some Americans dating back even before the pandemic. About 38% of full-time workers nationwide said they were living paycheck to paycheck in 2016, according to job-search firm CareerBuilder. 

The Bankrate survey, based on 2,400 respondents polled in mid-May, found that more low-income workers, people who earn $50,000 a year or less, are living paycheck to paycheck than any those in other income bracket. Living paycheck to paycheck is generally defined as an immediate lack of ability to pay for living expenses in the case of loss of income. 

Americans are feeling pinched these days, as inflation has made purchasing everyday items more expensive. Falling gas prices in June showed promising signs for consumers, but the rising cost of auto insurance and housing negates those savings for many.

Inflation has led to "an outright destruction of wages" for Americans whose pay hasn't kept up with inflation, Sarah Foster, Bankrate analyst, said in a statement.

As economists are quick to point out, wage growth has outpaced inflation since February 2023. Recent federal data shows that average wages grew 3.9% year over year in June, according to the most recent federal data, while consumer prices grew only 3% during that same time period.

Despite those metrics, Americans still say they feel their dollar isn't stretching as far as it used to. 

For Americans living paycheck to paycheck, grappling with everyday expenses "feels akin to walking a tightrope with no safety net, where the balance between expenses and earnings becomes a delicate dance," said Foster. "Inflation is the silent thief, and it comes with a price — often Americans' chances of living a comfortable life." 

To be sure, the cost of many of the basics, including food, shelter and transportation have increased dramatically since 2019, as CBS' price tracker shows. Between groceries and restaurants, Americans are spending more of their income on food than they have in 30 years.

"Living comfortably costs a lot more than it used to," said Foster. "Prices are up almost 21% since the pandemic first began in February 2020, requiring an extra $210 per every $1,000 someone used to spend on the items they both want and need."

Middle-income households falling behind

Other recent research has indicated that a significant share of Americans say they are on shaky financial ground. A survey earlier this month from Primerica found that two-thirds of middle-income U.S. households feel they're falling behind their cost of living. Most of those households are cooking meals at home more often to help save money, the Primerica research found. 

A June survey of 4,000 Americans by Jenius Bank found that half of respondents are losing sleep because of their dire financial situation. Many respondents blame persistent inflation and rising debt for their increased stress over finances, the bank said. 

A LendingTree report released this week found that one-third of American households are financially insecure, meaning they find it somewhat or very difficult to pay for expenses like food, housing, car payments and medicine. 

"It's troubling that 1 in 3 American households are financially insecure, but it shouldn't be terribly surprising," Matt Schulz, LendingTree's chief credit analyst, said in a statement. "The perfect storm of record debt, sky-high interest rates and stubborn inflation has resulted in many Americans' financial margin of error shrinking to virtually zero." 

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Khristopher J. Brooks

Khristopher J. Brooks is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. He previously worked as a reporter for the Omaha World-Herald, Newsday and the Florida Times-Union. His reporting primarily focuses on the U.S. housing market, the business of sports and bankruptcy.

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