The 2023 Baltimore Orioles – in first-place in the American League, on pace to record 102 wins, and having just secured their first playoff berth since 2016 – are obviously coming into their own this season. They are filled to the brim with young superstar talent, and are set to contend in the AL East for years to come.
Above all else though, they've been tremendously clutch.
All of those stats are great, but arguably the greatest demonstrator of the Orioles' clutch prowess is found elsewhere.
MLB Fangraphs has a clutch statistic that determines "how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” They determine this figure by taking a team's Win Probability Added, dividing that by the teams Average Leverage Index, and subtracting that entire quotient by the team's Situational Wins.
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In the last 10 seasons, the 2023 Orioles have the third-highest clutch rating in MLB, behind only the 2021 Seattle Mariners and the 2016 Texas Rangers.
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The 2021 Mariners (90-72) didn't even reach the postseason. While the 2016 Texas Rangers (95-67) did earn the No. 1 seed in the American League, they were swept in the ALDS by the Toronto Blue Jays. That's not a good omen for Baltimore's avian club.
Even worse, there are a multitude of poor teams near the top of the clutch leaderboards as well: The 2023 Colorado Rockies (56-94) have the sixth-highest clutch rating in the last 10 years. The 2023 Washington Nationals (66-85) rank 15th.
That said, the 2018 Red Sox (fifth), 2015 Kansas City Royals (seventh), 2014 San Francisco Giants (19th), and 2014 Kansas City Royals (20th) all either won or reached their respective World Series'.
That stat alone does not tell us enough. But if we filter out teams with a Win Probability Added of less than 8.0, the list starts looking much better. Among all 300 teams, only 13 recorded a Win Probability Added of 8.0 or more and were a net-positive clutch team. Two of them haven't finished their seasons (the 2023 Orioles and 2023 Atlanta Braves), so we can't really determine their success.
Here are the remaining eleven:
As you can see, the results are pretty varied, but mostly point against the Orioles' 2023 World Series hopes. Only two of these teams went on to win the World Series. Only two more made it past the Divisional Series. Seven of these eleven teams lost in their first playoff round.
The Orioles have been among MLB's biggest lovable losers for years, and it's probably safe to assume that most fans love seeing them achieve this level of success after years of basement-dwelling. History might not be on the Orioles' side, though, when the MLB postseason begins on Oct. 3.
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