It’s wing-and-a-prayer season in Major League Baseball and for that, we can thank the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Eight National League teams are bunched within 3 ½ games of each other and very much in the running for two of the three wild-card playoff spots available. And all of them harbor visions of replicating the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies and ’23 Arizona Diamondbacks, who won 87 and 83 games, respectively, yet parlayed increased playoff access into NL pennants and unlikely World Series appearances.
This year, the NL is a land where nobody’s dead and everybody’s grateful for that third wild card.
“For sure. I think everybody is,” says St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley. “There’s eight teams fighting for two spots right now.”
For now, we’ll elevate the Atlanta Braves from this mess and consider them highly likely to snag one of the three wild-card berths; they’re four games clear of the pack and, given their track record as six-time champions, rightfully focused on hacking into the Phillies’ 8 ½ game division lead.
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We’ll let you know if they get pulled down into this quagmire. But for now, here’s the eight clubs shooting for two spots – and the characters making the case for why they’ll be still standing come October:
Standing: 50-46, half-game ahead of New York for No. 2 wild card
Why they’ll be there: They’re less reliant on old warhorses Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt thanks to the emergence of younger players like Alec Burleson and shortstop Masyn Winn. Burleson hit 17 home runs, drove in 53 runs and had a 126 adjusted OPS in the first half. Winn has been an offensive revelation after he was pegged as an all-glove shortstop; he’s already banked 3.7 WAR and is batting .284 with a .739 OPS.
Why they may fade: Despite the addition of Sonny Gray and vets Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, the pitching staff has a middling 4.02 ERA and in this era of power doesn’t miss many bats, its 8.19 strikeouts per nine ranking 12th in the NL.
Stating their case: “I think our big bats are getting hot. Nolan and Goldy will probably tell you they didn’t play the way they wanted in the first half. But I think they’ve made some strides the last few weeks. If we get those guys going our lineup gets a lot deeper, a lot tougher.” - Helsley
Standing: 49-46, one game ahead of Arizona and San Diego for No. 3 wild card.
Why they’ll be there: Vibes. They’ve been immaculate since Jose Iglesias was recalled from Class AAA to serve as equal parts sage, utility infielder and hitmaker. Mark Vientos’ breakout year and a mix of youth (Christian Scott) and vets (Luis Severino) on the pitching staff has created a surprisingly potent bunch that’s been on a 25-13 run since June.
Why they may fade: The ninth inning remains a problem, as Edwin Diaz continues to struggle, and the health and performance of vets like Starling Marte (35), J.D. Martinez (36) and yes, the 34-year-old Iglesias may be questionable as the season gets deeper.
Stating their case: “That perpetual self-belief, not just with the leadership but with every single guy in the clubhouse, despite all the games we were down and underneath. A lot of people wrote us off. And I think that we have a really close-knit group and the way we responded– we stuck together and we’ve been playing our best baseball and showcasing who we are. We’re really excited for earning to be buyers at the deadline. A lot of stuff can happen the next two weeks, but we wanna keep putting our best foot forward and make it happen.” – First baseman Pete Alonso
Standing: 49-48, tied with San Diego a game behind New York for the final wild card spot.
Why they’ll be there: They won eight of 12 to steam into the break and now have a significant pitching cavalry on the way, as prized free agent Eduardo Rodriguez, Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery are all nearing a return.
Why they may fade: A bullpen that ranks 12th in the NL with a 4.30 ERA and has converted just 21 of 38 save opportunities shrinks the margin for error in a crowded race.
Stating their case: “This last stretch has been great. The confidence is high, for sure.” – First baseman Christian Walker
Standing: 50-49, tied with Arizona a game behind New York for the final wild card spot
Why they’ll be there: The May trade for Luis Arraez established a solid two-year window of contention pairing Arraez and staff ace Dylan Cease before they’re eligible for free agency. Aggressive GM A.J. Preller will be sure to fill in around them come July 30.
Why they may fade: The second half begins with a challenging nine-game trip to Cleveland, Washington and Baltimore and a home series with the Dodgers. It ends with nine of their final 12 games against Houston, L.A. and Arizona. Better make hay in between all that.
Stating their case: “We’re going to be there in the end. We got a couple new pieces that have gelled really fast and that’s been good for us. Arraez will rub off on you and so will Donovan Solano and David Peralta. Every guy serves a purpose.” – Center fielder Jackson Merrill
Standing: 48-48, 1 ½ games behind New York for final wild card spot
Why they’ll be there: Well, there is this 6-6 beast named Paul Skenes who comes as close as possible to guaranteed win day every time he takes the mound. Lest we forget, Mitch Keller has also significantly helped the rotation post a 3.52 ERA, second in the NL.
Why they may fade: Alas, a lineup that ranks 14th in NL OPS and in the bottom third in slugging and runs scored will ruin a fair amount of pitching gems.
Stating their case: “You gotta do it, but we got really good starting pitching. We got good arms in the bullpen. And if we can just hit enough, our starters are right up there with just about everybody. We started off hot and were bad for a little bit and been clawing back to get to .500. I think we’ve got what it takes. We’ve got the talent. We’ve just got to do it.” – Outfielder Bryan Reynolds
Standing: 47-50, three games behind New York for final wild card spot
Why they’ll be there: Slug and speed are tough to beat. The Reds’ 134 steals lead the NL and they’re sixth in home runs, all of that potency wrapped up in dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who took 17 homers, 46 steals and an .846 OPS into the break.
Why they may fade: Because that’s what they do. Cincy was 59-49 with a 1 ½-game NL Central lead last July 31, and then lost 10 of its next 13 and faded to 82-80. Time to prove otherwise.
Stating their case: “We’re young, we’re hungry because we were almost there last year and we still have that sour taste in our mouths. We have that extra motivation after last year. I think it’s really important to start the push now and start that winning culture and consistency as early as possible so we can continue to do it for as long as we can. It’s being able to learn from the past and trying to be as proactive as possible to stay out of those situations.” – Starting pitcher Hunter Greene
Standing: 47-50, three games behind New York for final wild card spot
Why they’ll be there: The pitching cavalry is on its way. Injured starters Alex Cobb and former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray are almost ready to make their season debuts, and Blake Snell’s late surge before the half – he took a perfect game into the seventh inning of his last start – gives them a potentially daunting look from the mound.
Why they may fade: The offense continues to be an arrhythmic mess, continuing a three-year pattern of droughts and reliance on the home run ball since their 107-win season in 2021.
Stating their case: “I was on the team that had the best record in baseball. And then I’ve been on teams where in the beginning of August we were a game out of the division, right? And ended up, you know, we’re (messing) the bed. That’s kind of what happened. You can’t really pinpoint what went wrong, but just not letting little things affect you every day. That’s what causes six-game losing streaks or multiple series losses in a row. Staying away from that is the biggest thing.” – Starting pitcher Logan Webb
Standing: 47-51, 3 ½ games behind New York for final wild card spot
Why they’ll be there: A trio of pitchers with ERAs of 3.10 or less is a great foundation for not just a playoff team, but a World Series contender. And Shota Imanaga (2.97), Justin Steele (2.71) and Jameson Taillon (3.10) give them a chance to consistently pick off series wins, the best route to methodically emerging from the wild card morass.
Why they may fade: More potholes in the lineup than you’d find in the 46th Ward in spring. Shortstop Dansby Swanson remains valuable defensively and as an all-around presence, but a .282 OBP and nine home runs won’t cut it. Will Pete Crow-Armstrong hit? Christopher Morel? Anybody?
Stating their case: “Focus on each day. Stack up the wins. Don’t go too far in the future.” – Imanaga
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