The stock market has been on a tear lately on the belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more than anticipated next year now that inflation is falling more rapidly even while the resilient economy seems more likely to dodge recession.

But don’t expect the Fed to further stoke that narrative this week.

After a two-day meeting concludes Wednesday, the central bank will almost certainly hold its key short-term interest rate steady for the third straight meeting, all but assuring that Fed officials are done with their most aggressive rate hike campaign in four decades.

All eyes, though, will be focused on the Fed’s forecasts for the economy, inflation and, in particular, interest rates. Although futures markets predict four to five quarter point rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is likely to pencil in just two, according to Goldman Sachs and Barclays. That’s roughly in line with the Fed’s forecast in September, though that estimate assumed there would be a final hike this month.

“The message they want to convey is to prevent talk about rate cuts,” says Richard Moody, chief economist of Regions Financial. “I think they want to push back on” the market forecasts.

At a recent forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was “premature” to discuss rate decreases.

Markets aren't buying it and reckon the Fed will start lowering its key rate by spring and slash it from a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% to as low as 4% to 4.25% by year-end.

Why?

Often, the Fed lowers interest rates to help dig the economy out of recession. But with a downturn becoming less likely, officials probably would reduce rates simply because inflation is falling closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, Goldman says in a research note. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently expressed a similar view.

Has inflation gone down in 2023?

Consumer prices rose 3.2% annually in October on falling energy costs, especially gasoline, down from 3.7% the prior month and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy costs, advanced 4% yearly, down from 4.1%.

Meanwhile, the economy is projected to expand at a less than 2% pace the final three months of the year and in 2024 after sizzling in the third quarter. Job gains and pay increases are also moderating, though they remain solid. That should give the Fed confidence that there won’t be a spike in wages that reignites inflation, Moody says.

The Fed on Wednesday will probably slightly lower its forecast for its preferred annual inflation measure, called PCE, to 2.5% by the end of next year even while it nudges up its 2024 growth forecast to 1.6% and reduces its estimate of the unemployment rate - now 3.7% - at the end of next year to 4%, Goldman says.

Yet there are risks that inflation could surge again or stay stubbornly high.

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that consumer prices overall were flat for a second straight month, lowering the yearly increase to 3.1%. based on the consumer price index.

Yet the core reading is likely to rise a solid 0.3% on a monthly basis as the cost of services such as hotels, along with car repairs and insurance, continue to move higher. That will probably make the Fed reluctant to let down its guard by trimming rates too soon and too quickly, economists say.

How long will it take for inflation to go back to normal?

Inflation’s pullback probably “won’t show much progress in coming months,” Barclays wrote in a research note.

The decline in another inflation measure, called PCE, that the Fed watches more closely than CPI was probably exaggerated by some volatile items, such as used cars, financial services and hotels, Barclays says.

And while average annual wage growth has declined to 4% from 5.9% since spring of last year, a rebound in immigration that has swollen the supply of U.S. workers and reined in pay increases may have peaked, Barclays says. That means pay gains now may drift down more slowly to the 3.5% mark that aligns with the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the research firm says.

Are US Treasury yields rising?

Another factor is Treasury yields.

When the Fed stood pat on rates in early November, 10-year Treasury yields had climbed past 5%, pushing up mortgage rates near 8% and driving up other consumer and business borrowing costs. And stocks were near a recent low. That led Fed Chair Jerome Powell to say that such harsh financial conditions, if they persisted, could substitute for further rate increases.

But 10-year Treasury yields since have fallen to 4.2% and stocks have rallied. As a result, the Fed may now want to maintain a tough stance on inflation and interest rates to prevent financial conditions from easing further. Otherwise, the economy could pick up, causing inflation’s decline “to stall at an uncomfortably elevated level,” Barclays says.

Both Goldman Sachs and Barclays believe the Fed won’t start cutting its key rate until the second half of next year and will lower it just twice to a range of 4.75% to 5% before further reductions in 2025 and 2026.

Latest inflation news:Price increases slow again in November. What will this mean for rate hikes?

Bottom line: Powell is likely to continue to downplay talk of rate cuts and repeat that the Fed could still lift rates again if necessary.

But will investors believe it?

With both the economy and inflation slowing, “That message might struggle to get through to markets,” economist Michael Pearce of Oxford Economics wrote in a note to clients.